2/22/2015
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
I wrote 4 years ago that if you bought it at $250 and held it for 3 years you might be ok, I put my own orders in around that price but never got any. After all Netflix stock is speculative and frothy. That was May 25th 2011, and my ordered had expired by the time it plummeted to $66 and I was so wary at that point (and hadn't read what I've now read nor experienced what I've now experienced) instead of picking it up at that price like I would now, I avoided it like the plague. My friends did well though, selling at $125 before it dropped to $53 and we all felt pretty smart . . .
Price at write-up $478.2
Target Median $420, Mode low price $320
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . .110.6
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 5.26
Earnings per share . . . . . . . 4.32
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . .15.55
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . .9.49
Held by institutions . . . . . . .85.36
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . .10.19
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .NA
MarketCap 28.9B
. . . and I kept feeling pretty smart, and almost bought shares, but was tapped out from buying my house (a relatively safer and surefire prospect in a major city) and continued to think about getting back into it when it still felt cheap at $180. That didn't happen, so here we are again. Things have changed, and unplugging has become the reality I predicted - though Netflix has been a become a creator of content and powerhouse that has cable companies running scared. Even being a major data point for the net neutrality debate and the ISP throttling of content providers.
Even so EPS have dropped off and as of this next month the drop will become a trend: 3.76, 3.69, 3.53 - even though many are beginning to consider it one of the content deliverers of choice. But Youtube could provide a reasonable alternative for many in that group just as DIS provides web viewing for ESPN, as well as the founders of Hulu with that service, and of course Amazon video. I use all of them to watch whatever I'd like and am not particularly concerned with branding except that Hulu is my least favorite and generally avoided, which has made me believe in Netflix's profitability even less. If I was inclined to pick up some shares of Netflix, and I'm not sure that I am, it'd be around $320. But it could go sub $100 again if there is some big scare. I would be inclined to pick it up around $150, though it's current value is likely closer to that $100 +/- $10 the rest of the market believes in Netflix's future. That might be warranted, but I don't have the vision to see it. Instead I'll add it to my watchlist and when it drops below $320 I'll follow it. If it ever drops to $100 I might wager a lot of money on its rise.
Due Diligence - Amzn, Goog/GOOGL, DIS
Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX)
I wrote 4 years ago that if you bought it at $250 and held it for 3 years you might be ok, I put my own orders in around that price but never got any. After all Netflix stock is speculative and frothy. That was May 25th 2011, and my ordered had expired by the time it plummeted to $66 and I was so wary at that point (and hadn't read what I've now read nor experienced what I've now experienced) instead of picking it up at that price like I would now, I avoided it like the plague. My friends did well though, selling at $125 before it dropped to $53 and we all felt pretty smart . . .
Price at write-up $478.2
Target Median $420, Mode low price $320
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . .110.6
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 5.26
Earnings per share . . . . . . . 4.32
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . .15.55
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . .9.49
Held by institutions . . . . . . .85.36
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . .10.19
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .NA
MarketCap 28.9B
. . . and I kept feeling pretty smart, and almost bought shares, but was tapped out from buying my house (a relatively safer and surefire prospect in a major city) and continued to think about getting back into it when it still felt cheap at $180. That didn't happen, so here we are again. Things have changed, and unplugging has become the reality I predicted - though Netflix has been a become a creator of content and powerhouse that has cable companies running scared. Even being a major data point for the net neutrality debate and the ISP throttling of content providers.
Even so EPS have dropped off and as of this next month the drop will become a trend: 3.76, 3.69, 3.53 - even though many are beginning to consider it one of the content deliverers of choice. But Youtube could provide a reasonable alternative for many in that group just as DIS provides web viewing for ESPN, as well as the founders of Hulu with that service, and of course Amazon video. I use all of them to watch whatever I'd like and am not particularly concerned with branding except that Hulu is my least favorite and generally avoided, which has made me believe in Netflix's profitability even less. If I was inclined to pick up some shares of Netflix, and I'm not sure that I am, it'd be around $320. But it could go sub $100 again if there is some big scare. I would be inclined to pick it up around $150, though it's current value is likely closer to that $100 +/- $10 the rest of the market believes in Netflix's future. That might be warranted, but I don't have the vision to see it. Instead I'll add it to my watchlist and when it drops below $320 I'll follow it. If it ever drops to $100 I might wager a lot of money on its rise.
Due Diligence - Amzn, Goog/GOOGL, DIS