1/12/2018
Arlington Asset Investment Corp NYSE: AI
Arlington buys leveraged portfolios of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) including residential (Fanny/Freddy backed) and private unbacked loans. I pick some up in 9/2014 expecting the mortgage back securities as a fair place to put some money and earn some dividends with a possible upside. This was followed by a precipitous decline followed by an undulating decline. Price at the previous write up was 27.61, PE 7.11x, P/S 7.9x, P/B 0.88x, P/Cash 15.58, 621.4M cap, 22.5M out, 33.67% held by institutions
Price at write-up $11.91
Indexes (30, 180 day looks)
VIX: 10.16
TED: 33.39
S&P500: 27864 (2448, 2663)
Target 11.75
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . . neg
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 4.17x
Earnings per share . . . . . . . -1.46
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . 0.86
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . . neg
Held by institutions . . . . . . . 39.48%
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.65%
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.64%
MarketCap 335.1M
Interest rates remain low with every indication they'll go up. While the Trump administration would like to keep them low the new tax plan will increase the deficit and everyone knows the Treasury will need to float more bonds to pay for it and in the near term are demanding a higher rate of return. Personally, I believe near the end of 2018 or mid-2019 we'll have seen or begin to see a pullback (or downturn) as things now are fine, but shaky.
Oops. An intermediate-term fail, down 44%, thankfully just got my toe wet. A piranha did bite down to the bone, however.
Arlington Asset Investment Corp NYSE: AI
Arlington buys leveraged portfolios of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) including residential (Fanny/Freddy backed) and private unbacked loans. I pick some up in 9/2014 expecting the mortgage back securities as a fair place to put some money and earn some dividends with a possible upside. This was followed by a precipitous decline followed by an undulating decline. Price at the previous write up was 27.61, PE 7.11x, P/S 7.9x, P/B 0.88x, P/Cash 15.58, 621.4M cap, 22.5M out, 33.67% held by institutions
Price at write-up $11.91
Indexes (30, 180 day looks)
VIX: 10.16
TED: 33.39
S&P500: 27864 (2448, 2663)
Target 11.75
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . . neg
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 4.17x
Earnings per share . . . . . . . -1.46
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . 0.86
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . . neg
Held by institutions . . . . . . . 39.48%
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.65%
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18.64%
MarketCap 335.1M
Interest rates remain low with every indication they'll go up. While the Trump administration would like to keep them low the new tax plan will increase the deficit and everyone knows the Treasury will need to float more bonds to pay for it and in the near term are demanding a higher rate of return. Personally, I believe near the end of 2018 or mid-2019 we'll have seen or begin to see a pullback (or downturn) as things now are fine, but shaky.
Oops. An intermediate-term fail, down 44%, thankfully just got my toe wet. A piranha did bite down to the bone, however.