6/15/2016
Wal-mart Stores, WMT (NYSE)
I've analyzed Walmart before and found WMT to be a reasonable buy but I'm not really seeing its future anymore. I think it'd be worth selling on the next uptick to avoid downside risk and poor future performance compared to the alternatives.
Price at write-up $70.95
Target 65.22
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . .15.61
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 0.45
Earnings per share . . . . . . . 4.52
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . 2.93
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . .8.96
Held by institutions . . . . . . . 28.96%
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.57
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$2.00/2.84%
MarketCap 221.1B
I've previously suggested WMT should be sold at near its current price, and that's probably true. Another drop to the sub $67 range seems somewhat reasonable. Although if the US presidential election results in a leader who's already stated they will violate a litany of constitutional and/or civil rights (a 100% chance if the winner is either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton), I think traders will see this as a boon for the working class and senselessly dump money into WMT. Alternately I think traders will panic and look for a safe place to put their assets when the crazy one takes office. Since I can't really see an outcome where News or World News doesn't make this stock go up I'm setting my price between $85 and $91 and generally hoping to sell it this year. Let's just hope the Market doesn't look at the honest numbers because Wal-mart's EPS has been declining for 5 quarters. The rate has slowed but it's not positive yet. If housing turns around and the economy goes gangbusters (again) for no real reason (again) then this stock loses a lot of trader interest and I'll hold onto it until less rational heads prevail.
Due Diligence - KO, AMZN, TLT, SPY
Wal-mart Stores, WMT (NYSE)
I've analyzed Walmart before and found WMT to be a reasonable buy but I'm not really seeing its future anymore. I think it'd be worth selling on the next uptick to avoid downside risk and poor future performance compared to the alternatives.
Price at write-up $70.95
Target 65.22
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . .15.61
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . 0.45
Earnings per share . . . . . . . 4.52
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . 2.93
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . .8.96
Held by institutions . . . . . . . 28.96%
Short interest . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.57
Dividend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$2.00/2.84%
MarketCap 221.1B
I've previously suggested WMT should be sold at near its current price, and that's probably true. Another drop to the sub $67 range seems somewhat reasonable. Although if the US presidential election results in a leader who's already stated they will violate a litany of constitutional and/or civil rights (a 100% chance if the winner is either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton), I think traders will see this as a boon for the working class and senselessly dump money into WMT. Alternately I think traders will panic and look for a safe place to put their assets when the crazy one takes office. Since I can't really see an outcome where News or World News doesn't make this stock go up I'm setting my price between $85 and $91 and generally hoping to sell it this year. Let's just hope the Market doesn't look at the honest numbers because Wal-mart's EPS has been declining for 5 quarters. The rate has slowed but it's not positive yet. If housing turns around and the economy goes gangbusters (again) for no real reason (again) then this stock loses a lot of trader interest and I'll hold onto it until less rational heads prevail.
Due Diligence - KO, AMZN, TLT, SPY