I've been on record that another downturn is coming, but they always are so that's not prophetic.
There is substantial uncertainty overseas and I've learned that with an international economy any substantial losses or problems abroad will carry some trouble to our shores.
In light of that I think a nontrivial Fed hike (more than 0.25%) is almost laughably unlikely. So money will remain cheap and any drop will not be substantial. Still there is weakness out there and we should capitalize on it.
In the latest pull back (a different thing than a downturn) my outstanding orders depleted my cash reserves. As described in my dip & flip strategy, cash on hand is always necessary. No need to run up the margin account.
With all that in mind, I reviewed my holdings and set some exit points, reductions, additions, and some "too soon to tell"s. As of this writing, I have shares in all securities mentioned so please consult an actual advisor because most of this info will be of NO value to you. Unless you've agreed with my past acquisitions, or considered them, at which point these become my renewed second opinion and thoughts.
Please refer to original write-ups for my general review, barring that you're probably SOL because while I acquired it I deigned no write-up was required. Email me if you find such (pcp?) And I'll at least comment on it.
All prices are approximate.
Twitter buy@20-24 Sell@55 - 75
Jack Dorsey is back, kinda, and he's making changes I like. The board can get stuffed though, I don't care if he's part time he's got the good. I just hope he's good at delegation. There is risk here, but I find it acceptable.
Jack Dorsey is back, kinda, and he's making changes I like. The board can get stuffed though, I don't care if he's part time he's got the good. I just hope he's good at delegation. There is risk here, but I find it acceptable.
GBAB reduce position @24 increase at 20
The build America Bonds have done well for me, but they represent a substantial portion of my portfolio. If there is a down turn, the price should go up due to the yield and I can take something off the table.
The build America Bonds have done well for me, but they represent a substantial portion of my portfolio. If there is a down turn, the price should go up due to the yield and I can take something off the table.
DIS reduce position@146, long-term accumulate.
As recently described, Disney has a strong portfolio even if it's an evil corporation. I may hate Disney's politics but I can't hate their vision. Marketing done right. Strong IP. Licencing. Market share & mastery. Great company, but their recent dip is why I have zero cash on hand. I could sell now with an 8% gain, but I feel a jump is coming this December where I'll reduce my position by 1/3.
As recently described, Disney has a strong portfolio even if it's an evil corporation. I may hate Disney's politics but I can't hate their vision. Marketing done right. Strong IP. Licencing. Market share & mastery. Great company, but their recent dip is why I have zero cash on hand. I could sell now with an 8% gain, but I feel a jump is coming this December where I'll reduce my position by 1/3.
WMT sell@88
As described in dip & flip, I already made my money here. I should've sold it all off already, but I failed. At the time I was riding out the dividend & market, and had plenty of cash on hand. Now there are opportunities and it's possible I'll get my pie in the sky price. It'll get there some day, and I'm not concerned about how long it takes thanks to the dividend and market volatility. That could change if I make another great, but unexpected, acquisition.
As described in dip & flip, I already made my money here. I should've sold it all off already, but I failed. At the time I was riding out the dividend & market, and had plenty of cash on hand. Now there are opportunities and it's possible I'll get my pie in the sky price. It'll get there some day, and I'm not concerned about how long it takes thanks to the dividend and market volatility. That could change if I make another great, but unexpected, acquisition.
GOOGL buy@532
Long term accumulate, I don't care what your name is.
Long term accumulate, I don't care what your name is.
TRIP sell@109
A fair pickup, but perhaps I inappropriately valued it due to future business prospects. I think there might still be opportunity here, but I don't know were users sentiment well swing. You may build it and they may not come. I'd take the profit if it comes by January, otherwise I'll reevaluate another time.
A fair pickup, but perhaps I inappropriately valued it due to future business prospects. I think there might still be opportunity here, but I don't know were users sentiment well swing. You may build it and they may not come. I'd take the profit if it comes by January, otherwise I'll reevaluate another time.
EXC increase position@28
Book is 1.04 I don't care how much energy is hurting right now, can't beat even money! Plus seven years of dividends more than negates my loss in stock price. But this stock will be on the block in the next recession, it's on the ten-year dip and flip plan. I'll probably pick it up again 5 years thereafter. Obviously this is one priced high in bad times and low in good.
Book is 1.04 I don't care how much energy is hurting right now, can't beat even money! Plus seven years of dividends more than negates my loss in stock price. But this stock will be on the block in the next recession, it's on the ten-year dip and flip plan. I'll probably pick it up again 5 years thereafter. Obviously this is one priced high in bad times and low in good.
MAIN reduce position@33
Another substantial holding. They've taken on a lot of debt to expand and this is the time to do it. I won't be sad if I don't reduce this position, but I'd like them to start making mad cash again on the 8-month cycle. MAIN is using leverage like a claymore, I just hope they are pointed in the right direction.
Another substantial holding. They've taken on a lot of debt to expand and this is the time to do it. I won't be sad if I don't reduce this position, but I'd like them to start making mad cash again on the 8-month cycle. MAIN is using leverage like a claymore, I just hope they are pointed in the right direction.
FB sell@99
Probably over bought. Probably. Revenue growth is down and something is different with the user experience. Maybe some high level programmer left. Maybe I changed. Maybe the alternatives are better. Maybe I should get out soon, but I think the folks well flock here when uncertainty is flooding the general markets. That's when I'll bail.
Probably over bought. Probably. Revenue growth is down and something is different with the user experience. Maybe some high level programmer left. Maybe I changed. Maybe the alternatives are better. Maybe I should get out soon, but I think the folks well flock here when uncertainty is flooding the general markets. That's when I'll bail.
TLT buy at 115
Strait forward accumulate in good times for the option to sell in bad. VIX is 24.5 though, so I won't be picking up more shares anytime soon. If too many other triggers hit my mark I'll be forced to reduce at market price and have no problem with that.
Strait forward accumulate in good times for the option to sell in bad. VIX is 24.5 though, so I won't be picking up more shares anytime soon. If too many other triggers hit my mark I'll be forced to reduce at market price and have no problem with that.
KO increase position at 34
Long term accumulate. Won't likely pick any more up for a few years given the market. Should've bought more for the downturn. I'll always have an open order for coke if I can help it.
BUD sell at 109 - 115
I don't know WTF Inbev is doing. There is no reason Anheuser-Busch InBev shouldn't be killing it. The VIX will save me from mediocre management. Sadly I'd buy more if they dip again. Flip!
PYPL increase position at 30
PayPal just works. Green backs are a chore and PayPal facilitates transactions that are greater than two digits. I like the security on third party websites. I like the ownership of Venmo - which is huge in the SF bay area. Good position, decent future. I wish they were accepted at business with greater frequency, but PayPal and Venmo make transactions among known person's a snap. Exchanging money had never been so easy. Thank god Ebay isn't part of PayPal anymore.
DLTNX long term acquire
I wish I could set the price I buy this at or trade triggers for acquisition. Such as life is though, I just buy a little more every month or so. Stupid mutual fund rules. Why can't thus be an ETF?
I wish I could set the price I buy this at or trade triggers for acquisition. Such as life is though, I just buy a little more every month or so. Stupid mutual fund rules. Why can't thus be an ETF?
SEP hold
A strait shooter with upper management looking all over it. If I haven't written this stock up I should.
MO hold
Classic long term accumulate. Would sell in the next recession though and rebuy after the recovery . . . Again.
OLED hold
My LG G4 doesn't have their screen, HUGE mistake. There is no reason a high quality device shouldn't have an OLED display. They are the truth and the light and the world must embrace them! And pay licencing fees. Drive through please.
My LG G4 doesn't have their screen, HUGE mistake. There is no reason a high quality device shouldn't have an OLED display. They are the truth and the light and the world must embrace them! And pay licencing fees. Drive through please.
PCP hold
Barely even know I still have this. Never did a real write up but got it in 2014 and it's done well for me. I should probably sell it maybe. But I should really do a full analysis and figure out where I stand before this becomes an intermediate term hold.
Barely even know I still have this. Never did a real write up but got it in 2014 and it's done well for me. I should probably sell it maybe. But I should really do a full analysis and figure out where I stand before this becomes an intermediate term hold.
AI hold
Give me more money! Nah, I might sell this off if I feel the markets are about to take a dump. At this point I'd realize a loss though. Since the U.S.housing market is recovering well so I'm holding holding until mid 2016+ I expect.
DDC hold
See recent write up. Lots of volatility, but unclear if I'd add to this position now in light if my zero cash.
See recent write up. Lots of volatility, but unclear if I'd add to this position now in light if my zero cash.
GLD hold, accumulate
It's off the highs, but the craziness of record prices is likely to resume after the VIX hits 30+. Now might be the perfect time to buy for the flip.
It's off the highs, but the craziness of record prices is likely to resume after the VIX hits 30+. Now might be the perfect time to buy for the flip.
HYD hold
No point in selling this one until another recession is in full swing. Probably won't add to it at the moment, but sentiment is down enough that if I had enough extra cash it'd make a good intermediate-term flip.
No point in selling this one until another recession is in full swing. Probably won't add to it at the moment, but sentiment is down enough that if I had enough extra cash it'd make a good intermediate-term flip.
NBBTF rueful hold
Some folks suggested this to me years ago. Good pitch, probably a bad investment though. It's Chinese pink sheets, so it might not even exist apart from my dividends. The Chinese Mary K. Doesn't hurt me to hold my 30000 shares but the second it's over a dollar I'll sell. Probably.
Some folks suggested this to me years ago. Good pitch, probably a bad investment though. It's Chinese pink sheets, so it might not even exist apart from my dividends. The Chinese Mary K. Doesn't hurt me to hold my 30000 shares but the second it's over a dollar I'll sell. Probably.