1/12/2011
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk PT (NYSE:TLK)
Here's another one that I had a write up for at one time, but was let down by facebook ... or something. I've held this stock twice. I bought shares at 33, sold them at 35 and bought them again at $34.25 Jul 9 2010. I had been talking to a trader at the time and had concluded (around June 29th) to liquidate a lot of my holdings. It did save me a lot of money for a short term correction but it wasn't entirely nessisary. In fact, despite making money off it I would have made more if if had just stuck with several of the stocks I sold that week. My comfort level on this stock has been about 8% (less than 10%) of my portfolio, but it probably shouldn't be more than 5% of anyone's.
TLK is a high end mobile & wired phone service provider in Indonesia (which is off the coast of China), they also provide high end broad band service but thier increase in subscribers have been lack luster. Again, this is because they're in Indonesia which is essentially full of poor people buying the lowest priced services because they have to. TLK however has the best service and coverage in the area so as people manage to get more money they will gradually move to TLK for reliability and manuverability.
Price at time of evaluation: $33.64
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.12x
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.04x
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.36x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . 4.83x
% Held by Inst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.49
Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/5: Trailing 10mo av 36.41
Benjamim . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/5: 42.57 target price
Marcel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2/5: Hold current shorts, not a buy, watch for resistance@35.86
Saxon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3/5
The reasons you should buy though is simply that they make a lot of money off thier subsribers with a 21.81% Net profit margin. While that will probably decrease to around 15% as they expand, it's still very attractive (telecom normally runs around 11.86%). There is a blip in the most recent quarters earings per share, but revenue growth continues to climb. They offer better services than thier competitors, but there are a lot of them so that should always linger in your mind. It's taking on some debt in an attempt to buy a neighboring telecom company which I also like for future expansion and diversification.
The reality is that telecom continues to be competative, but that it is continuing to try it's hand at expansion which I think will be largely successful. I began this write up believing I was going to expand my holding to 5 or 8% from my current 3%, but I've decided to do some other due dilligence first. If you can pick it up for $32.40 or so I'd go for at least a 2.5% possition, up to about 8% since in my view you should be exposed to this stock hopefuly sooner rather than later. So I do think it might go still lower and I'll look at it again next week and consider picking it up at $32.00 while expecting it to rebound to about 35.50 essentially without warning. That being said there is a fair chance to make some solid short term gains and a good chance to make some long term gains. Get to 2.5%.
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk PT (NYSE:TLK)
Here's another one that I had a write up for at one time, but was let down by facebook ... or something. I've held this stock twice. I bought shares at 33, sold them at 35 and bought them again at $34.25 Jul 9 2010. I had been talking to a trader at the time and had concluded (around June 29th) to liquidate a lot of my holdings. It did save me a lot of money for a short term correction but it wasn't entirely nessisary. In fact, despite making money off it I would have made more if if had just stuck with several of the stocks I sold that week. My comfort level on this stock has been about 8% (less than 10%) of my portfolio, but it probably shouldn't be more than 5% of anyone's.
TLK is a high end mobile & wired phone service provider in Indonesia (which is off the coast of China), they also provide high end broad band service but thier increase in subscribers have been lack luster. Again, this is because they're in Indonesia which is essentially full of poor people buying the lowest priced services because they have to. TLK however has the best service and coverage in the area so as people manage to get more money they will gradually move to TLK for reliability and manuverability.
Price at time of evaluation: $33.64
Valuation Ratios
Price/Earnings (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.12x
Price/Sales (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.04x
Price/Book (MRQ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.36x
Price/Cash Flow (TTM) . . . . . . . . . . . 4.83x
% Held by Inst . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.49
Thomas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/5: Trailing 10mo av 36.41
Benjamim . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4/5: 42.57 target price
Marcel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2/5: Hold current shorts, not a buy, watch for resistance@35.86
Saxon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3/5
The reasons you should buy though is simply that they make a lot of money off thier subsribers with a 21.81% Net profit margin. While that will probably decrease to around 15% as they expand, it's still very attractive (telecom normally runs around 11.86%). There is a blip in the most recent quarters earings per share, but revenue growth continues to climb. They offer better services than thier competitors, but there are a lot of them so that should always linger in your mind. It's taking on some debt in an attempt to buy a neighboring telecom company which I also like for future expansion and diversification.
The reality is that telecom continues to be competative, but that it is continuing to try it's hand at expansion which I think will be largely successful. I began this write up believing I was going to expand my holding to 5 or 8% from my current 3%, but I've decided to do some other due dilligence first. If you can pick it up for $32.40 or so I'd go for at least a 2.5% possition, up to about 8% since in my view you should be exposed to this stock hopefuly sooner rather than later. So I do think it might go still lower and I'll look at it again next week and consider picking it up at $32.00 while expecting it to rebound to about 35.50 essentially without warning. That being said there is a fair chance to make some solid short term gains and a good chance to make some long term gains. Get to 2.5%.